Soda ash neekora omurimo muhango omu makorero maingi, kandi amakorero g’endabirwamu nigakora nka 60% y’ebintu ebirikukoresibwa omu nsi yoona.
Endabirwamu z‘ebipande nizo zirikukirayo obuhango omu katare k‘endabirwamu, kandi endabirwamu z‘ebidomora nizo zirikukirayo obuhango omu katare k‘endabirwamu (ekishushani 1). Endaara y’okutegyeka eizooba erikukoresibwa omu bipande by’eizooba niyo erikweyongyera juba omu kwetenga.
Omu mwaka gwa 2023, okutunguuka kw’okwenda kwa China nikwija kuhika aha rurengo rwahaiguru munonga orw’obwire bwona orwa 10%, n’okutunguuka okuhikire okwa tani miriyooni 2.9. Okushaba kw'ensi yoona otabariiremu China kukyeireho n'ebicweka 3.2%.
Obushoborozi bwokukora eishokye rya soda buraza kuguma bugumire ahagati ya 2018 na 2022, ahabwokuba purojekiti nyingi ezatebekanisiibwe kwongyera zikyerereirwe ahabwa endwara ya COVID-19. Omu mazima, China ekafeerwa munonga obushoboorozi bwa soda ash omu bwire obu.
Kwonka okutunguuka okurikukirayo omu bwire bukye nikwija kuruga China, otwariremu tani miriyooni 5 z’ebintu bisya eby’omuhendo mukye (eby’obuhangwa) ebirikwija kutandika kutunguuka ahagati y’omwaka 2023.
Purojekiti zoona ez’okujanjaaza omuri US omu bwire obuhweire zikozirwe kampuni ya Genesis, erikuza kuba eine obushoboorozi bwona oburikwingana tani miriyooni 1.2 aha muheru gw’omwaka 2023.
Omu mwaka gwa 2028, tani miriyoni 18 z’obushoboorozi busya niziteekateekwaho kwongyerwamu omunsi yoona, kandi 61% niziija kuruga China kandi 34% niziija kuruga US.
Obushoboorozi bw’okukora ebintu ku burikweyongyera, n’omusingi gwa tekinologiya nagwo niguhinduka. Omugabo gwa soda y’obuhangwa omu bushoborozi busya bw’okukora nigweyongyera. Omugabo gwayo omu bwingi bw’ebintu ebirikukorwa omunsi yoona niguteekateekwaho kuhika ahari 22% omu mwaka 2028.
Ebishare by’okukora soda y’obuhangwa okutwarira hamwe nibikye munonga kukira ebya soda eby’obuhangwa. Nahabwekyo, empindahinduka omu bya tekinologiya nazo nizihindura omutindo gw’esente z’ensi yoona. Okuhakanisa nikurugiirira aha kuha, kandi omwanya gw‘obushoboorozi busya nagwo nigwija kukwata aha kuhakanisa.
Soda ash n‘omubazi gw‘omutaano ogurikukoresibwa omu kukozesa eby‘aha muheru ebiine akakwate ka haihi n‘amagara gaitu ga buriijo. Nahabwekyo, okweyongyera kw’okwenda soda ash omu buhangwa kukaba nikureetwaho amahanga agari omu ntunguuka. Kwonka okwetenga kwa soda tikurikugaruka kurugiirira aha kukura kw’eby’entaasya kwonka; ekitongore ky’eby’obuhangwa nakyo nikihwera munonga omu kutunguuka kw’okwenda eby’okurya bya soda.
Kwonka, obushoboorozi bwona obw‘evu ya soda omu nkora ezi z‘okukoresa ez‘aha muheru nibuguma kuteebereza. Amatsiko g’okukoresa soda omu bateri, otwariiremu na bateri za lithium-ion, nigagumire.
Nikyo kimwe n’aha ndabirwamu z’eizooba, kandi ebitongore by’amaani eby’ensi yoona nibiguma nibihindura oku birikuteekateeka aha maani g’eizooba kuza ahaiguru.
Obushuubuzi nibukora omurimo muhango omu kukora soda, ahabwokuba emyanya y’okukoramu terikuguma eri haihi n’ebicweka ebirikwetengyesa munonga, kandi nk’ekicweka kya kana kya soda nikitwarwa ahagati y’ebicweka ebikuru.
Amerika, Türkiye na China n'amahanga makuru omuby'obushuubuzi ahabw'okugira ngu nigakora aha katare k'eby'enyanja. Aha bakozi ba America, okwetenga kuruga omu butare bw’okushohoza ebintu aheeru y’ihanga n’ekintu kikuru ekirikureetaho okukura okukira akatare k’omu ihanga akakuzire.
Omu buhangwa, abakozi ba America batunguukire omu bi barikukora barikweyongyera aha bi barikutwara aheeru y’ihanga, barikuhwerwa omutindo gw’esente ogurikuhakanisa. Obutare bw’eby’enyanja obukuru nibutwariramu Asia esigaireho (otabariiremu China n’ekicweka kya India) na South America.
N’obu eraabe eine omugabo mukye omu by’obushuubuzi bw’ensi yoona, China eine akakwate kakuru n’akatare k’ensi yoona aka soda ahabw’okuhindukahinduka omu by’obushuubuzi bwayo, nk’oku twaheza kureeba omwaka ogu.
Nkoku kyagambirweho ahaiguru, China eyongyeireho obushoboorozi bwingi omu 2023 na 2024, ekyareetera okuteekateeka ngu neija kutunga eby’okurya bingi, kwonka eby’okurya kuruga China bikahika aha rurengo rwa rikodi omu kicweka ky’okubanza eky’omwaka 2024.
Omubwire nibwo bumwe, eby'okuguza America aheeru y'ihanga byeyongyeireho 13% omwaka aha mwaka omu myezi etaano ey'okubanza ey'omwaka ogu, kandi esente nyingi niziruga China.
Okweyongyera kw’okwenda omuri China omu mwaka 2023 nikwija kuba okw’amaani munonga, kuhika ahari tani nka miriyoni 31.4, okukira munonga nikureetwa endabirwamu ezirikutegyeka eizooba.
Obushoboorozi bwa China obw’okukora soda ash nibuija kweyongyera na tani miriyooni 5.5 omu mwaka 2024, ekirikukira aha biteekateeko by’obwire bukye eby’okwenda okusya.
Kwonka okweyongyera kw’okwenda kugarukire kwarenga oku kyabaire nikiteekateekwaho omwaka ogu, okwetenga kutunguukire 27% omwaka aha mwaka omu kicweka ky’okubanza kya 2023. Okweyongyera okuriho hati kwagumizamu, omwanya ahagati y’okutunga n’okwenda omuri China tigurikwija kugaruka kuba muhango munonga.
Eihanga nirigumizamu kwongyera aha bushoborozi bw’okukora endabirwamu z’eizooba, kandi obushoborozi bwona nibuteekateekwaho kuhika ahari tani miriyoni 46 omu kwezi kwa mushanju 2024.
Beitu ab'obushoboorozi omuri China nibeerarikirira ahabw'obushoboorozi bw'okukora endabirwamu z'eizooba ezirengire kandi bariyo nibagaaniira aha nkora z'okuzibinga. Omubwire nibwo bumwe, amashanyarazi aga China agateirweho gakeyongyera 29% omwaka aha mwaka kuruga omukwamwenda kuhisya okwakataano 2024, kurugiirira ahakitongore ky'amashanyarazi omu ihanga.
Kwonka, kampuni ya China erikukora PV module neegambwa kuba neekora n'okufeerwa, ekireeteire amakorero agamwe makye agarikuteerana ebintu kuguma nigakora nari nangwa n'okurekyera aho kukora.
Omu bwire nibwo bumwe, Southeast Asia eine omubaro muhango gw’ebikwato ebirikuteerana PV module, ebingi biri eby’abashuubuzi ba China, abarikukora munonga omu katare ka PV module omuri America.
Ebimwe aha bitongore ebirikuteerana ebintu nibigambirwa ngu biherize kurekyera aho kukora ahabwa gavumenti ya America kwihaho ekihuumuro ky'omushoro gw'okureeta ebintu kuruga aheeru. Amahanga agakuru agarikutwaramu endabirwamu z’eizooba eza China n’amahanga g’omu bukiizi-bwa-bumosho bwa Asia.
Obwire obu okweyongyera kw’okwenda soda omuri China kuhikire aha rurengo rwa rikodi, entunguuka y’okwenda soda aheeru ya China neekira kuba ey’emiringo mingi. Ahaifo hariho okushoboorora okukye aha kwetenga omu mahanga agandi aga Asia na Amerika, okushoboorora bimwe aha bintu ebi.
Emibaro y‘okureeta ebintu kuruga aheeru neeha eky‘okureeberaho ky‘omugasho ky‘okushaba kw‘eby‘okurya bya soda omu mahanga agandi aga Asia (otabariiremu China n‘ekicweka kya India) ahabw‘obushoboorozi bw‘okukora ebintu omu ihanga obukye.
Omu myezi etaano kuhika ahari mukaaga ey’okubanza eya 2024, eby’okurya ebirugire omu kicweka eki bikahika miriyooni 2 za tani, ekirikumanyisa ngu 4.7% nibikira omu bwire nibwo bumwe omwaka oguhweire (ekishushani 2).
Endaara z’eizooba nizo zirikukirayo kureetaho okwetenga kwa soda omu mahanga agandi aga Asia, n’endabirwamu z’ebipande nazo nizibaasa kureetaho omugasho murungi.
Nkoku kirikworekwa omu kishushani 3, hariho purojekiti nyingi z‘amashanyarazi g‘eizooba n‘endabirwamu z‘ebipande ezitebeekanisiibwe omu kicweka eki ezirikubaasa kwongyera aha tani nka miriyooni 1 z‘okwetenga kw‘eijuka rya soda ensya.
Kwonka n’eby’obushuubuzi bw’endabirwamu z’eizooba nabyo biine oburemeezi. Emishoro eyahererukireyo nk’emishoro y’okurwanisa okusheenya n’okugaruza ebintu omu itaka erikuteebwaho America neebaasa kukwata aha kukora eby’okukoresa eby’amashanyarazi omu mahanga nka Vietnam na Malaysia.
Emishoro aha bikwato ebikozirwe omuri China neeshaba abakozi omu mahanga aga kutunga ebicweka ebikuru kuruga omu bashuubuzi abari aheeru ya China okwetantara emishoro y'ahaiguru. Eki nikyongyera aha sente z’okukora, kigumizamu n’okugaba ebintu, kandi aha muheru nikiija kukyendeeza aha kuhakanisa kw’ebipande bya PV eby’omu bukiizi-bwa-bumosho bwa Asia omu katare ka America.
Aba China baingi abarikukora PV panel omu bukiizi-bwa-bumosho bwa Asia nibagira ngu bakemereeza okukora omu kwezi kwa mukaaga ahabw'emishoro, kandi okukora ebindi nibibaasa kwemerezibwa omu myezi erikwija.
Ekicweka kya Americas (otabariiremu US) nikirugiirira munonga aha bintu ebirikuruga aheeru. Nahabwekyo, empindahinduka zoona omu kureeta ebintu kuruga aheeru nizibaasa kuba eky‘okureeberaho kirungi ky‘okwenda okuri ahansi.
Ebihandiiko by’obushuubuzi ebihererukireyo nibyoreka entunguuka mbi y’okureeta ebintu kuruga aheeru y’ihanga omu myezi etaano kuhika ahari mushanju ey’okubanza ey’omwaka, erikukyendeera 12%, nari shi 285,000 metric tons (ekishushani 4).
North America, okuhisya hati, niyo yaarebire okukyendeera kwingi, okukyendeera 23% nari tani 148,000. Mexico niyo yaareebire okukyendeera kwingi. Ekicweka kihango ekya soda ash omuri Mexico, ekikopo ky'ebikopo, kikaba kiri kikye ahabw'okwenda eby'okunywa by'omwengye. Okushaba kwa soda yoona omuri Mexico tikurikuteekateekwaho kweyongyera kuhitsya 2025.
Ebintu ebirikuruga South America nabyo bikagwa munonga, 10% omwaka aha mwaka. Ebintu ebirikuruga Argentina nibyo byakyeire munonga, 63% omwaka aha mwaka.
Kwonka, ahabw’okugira ngu purojekiti nsya nyingi eza lithiamu zitebeekanisiibwe kutandika kukora omwaka ogu, eby’okureeta kuruga aheeru ya Argentina biine kutunguuka (ekishushani 5).
Nangwa, lithium carbonate niyo erikukirayo kureetaho okwetenga kwa soda omu mahanga ga South America. N‘obu haraabe hariho emiteekateekyere mibi eyahererukireyo eyehinguririize eby‘obushuubuzi bwa lithiamu nk‘ekicweka ky‘omuhendo mukye, okureeba kw‘obwire bwa rwagati n‘obw‘obwire buraingwa ni kurungi.
Emihendo y‘okushohoza ebintu aheeru y‘ihanga ey‘abashuubuzi abakuru neeyoreka empindahinduka omu nkora y‘akatare k‘ensi yoona (ekishushani 6). Emihendo omuri China niyo erikukira kuhindukahinduka.
Omu mwaka gwa 2023, omuhendo gw'ebintu bya China eby'okushohoza gukaba guri US$360 ahari metric ton FOB, kandi aha kutandika kwa 2024, omuhendo gukaba guri US$301 ahari metric ton FOB, kandi omu kwezi kwa mukaaga, gukagwa gwahika ahari US$264 ahari metric ton FOB.
Omubwire obwo, omuhendo gw'ebintu bya Turkey eby'okushohoza gukaba guri US$386 ahari metric ton FOB aha kutandika kwa 2023, US$211 zonka ahari metric ton FOB omu Kwaikumi-n'abiri 2023, kandi US$193 zonka ahari metric ton FOB omu Kwakataano 2024.
Kuruga omu Kwamwenda kuhisya okwakataano 2024, emihendo y’ebintu ebirikutwarwa aheeru y’ihanga omuri US ekaba eri ahagati ya doola 230 ahari metric ton FAS, ahansi y’omuhendo gw’omwaka ogwa $298 ahari metric ton FAS omu 2023.
Okutwarira hamwe, eby’obushuubuzi bwa soda ash ebiherize kworeka obubonero bw’okugira obushoboorozi bwingi. Kwonka, okutunguuka kw’okwenda okuriho hati omuri China kwaba nikubaasa kugumaho, okubaasa kubaho kw’okurenga aha bintu nikubaasa kutaba kwingi nk’oku kirikutiinwa.
Kwonka, okukura oku kwingi nikuruga omu kitongore ky‘amashanyarazi agarikwera, ekicweka eki obushoboorozi bwakyo obw‘okwenda obuhikire kigumire kuteebereza gye.
Ekitongore ky'okucondooza aha katare k'emibazi ekya OPIS, Dow Jones & Company, nikiija kutebeekanisa orukiiko rwa Soda Ash orw'omurundi gwa 17 orw'ensi yoona omuri Malta kuruga ebiro 9-11 Okwaikumi omwaka ogu. Omutwe gw’oruteerane oru buri mwaka ni “Ekigambo ky’okuhakanisa eky’eijuka rya Soda”.
Orukiiko rwa Global Soda Ash Conference (reeba aha rubaju rwa bumosho) nirwija kureeta hamwe abakugu omunsi yoona n'abeebembezi b'amakorero kuruga omubicweka by'akatare byona kuhurira okutebereza kw'abakugu ahaby'akatare ka soda n'amakorero agarikukwatagana, kugaaniira aha mpinduka y'akatare, oburemeezi n'emigisha, n'okucondooza aha nkora y'okuhindura emitwarize y'akatare k'ensi yoona, obariiremu oku akatare ka China karaakwate aha katare k'ensi yoona.
Abashomi ba Glass International nibabaasa kutunga 10% aha tikiti z'oruteerane barikukoresa koodi ya GLASS10.
Jess n'omuhwezi w'omuhandiiki w'ekitongore kya Glass eky'ensi yoona. Abaire naashoma eby’okuhandiika eby’obuhanguzi n’eby’obukugu kuruga 2017 kandi akaheza diguri ye omu 2020. Jess atakagiire omu Quartz Business Media, akaba nakora nk’omuhandiiki orikwekorera omu makampuni n’ebitabo bitari bimwe na bimwe.